Author

Biryukov V.V.

Title of article

CRIMINALISTIC FORECASTING, ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN FORENSIC SCIENCE AND THE PRACTICE OF INVESTIGATING CRIMES

Section

Section 1. Methodology of law enforcement activitie

Issue, year

1 (43) 2018

Abstract

The issues concerning the expediency of forecasting the development of criminalistics, taking into account the prospects of its nearest and relatively distant future, as well as the need for empirical forecasting in the course of investigative actions and when using tactical techniques, combinations and operations, are analyzed in the article. The author notes that a significant part of the investigation takes place in the conditions of tactical risk, therefore, it is expedient to predictthe achievement of positive results of using the tactical methods of the implementation of tactical operations and combinations with a certain degree of probability. It is also necessary to take into account the possibility of the influence of various negative factors and unforeseen circumstances. Forecasting is a special method of criminalistics, which is inherent to the investigation tactics. like the version, the forecast is a hypothesis based on the analysis of the data on the past and present state and the development of certain processes and phenomena. however, unlike the hypothesis aimed at retrospective cognition, the forecast explains the possibility to change objects and the course of events in the future with a certain degree of probability. Meaningful and purposeful forecasting creates real prerequisites for determining the directions of development and improvement of scientific knowledge, as well as the practice of investigating crimes with regard to the probabilistic-situational approach.

Keywords

 prognosis; forecasting; special method; prevision; version; situation; tactical risk; probability

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